Hurricane Milton’s damage to Florida could exceed $100 billion

Hurricane Milton, currently a Category 4 storm, is expected to make landfall on Florida’s west coast Wednesday night or early Thursday, potentially affecting hundreds of thousands of homes in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota areas. 

The National Hurricane Center calls it an “extremely dangerous major hurricane,” prompting evacuation orders for millions.

Half a million single-family and multifamily homes with a reconstruction cost value of $123 billion are at potential risk of storm surge damage, according to Corelogic’s report published Tuesday. This prediction is based on Milton making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. 

“Hurricane Milton forecasts currently indicate a direct landfall over Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph,” said Jon Schneyer, director of catastrophe response at Corelogic, Tuesday. “Small changes in the exact landfall location will have monumental consequences on the financial impact of this storm.”

If Milton hits Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, an estimated 225,000 homes with a combined replacement cost value of $55 billion could be at risk. Should the storm remain a Category 4 hurricane, close to 700,000 homes with a RCV of $174 billion could be threatened. 

“A direct landfall, or one just north of Tampa Bay, would be a worst-case scenario because the winds and storm surge flooding would be most intense. A more southern landfall would reduce the impact in Tampa Bay but devastate communities along the coast near Sarasota,” Schneyer added.

Projected insured losses could total $60 billion to $100 billion if Milton makes direct landfall on Tampa, Morningstar DBRS, a credit rating agency, wrote Wednesday. That would be on par with losses from Hurricane Katrina, which reached $100 billion in today’s dollars.However, if the hurricane’s projected path is south of Tampa Bay, insured losses may land between $30 billion to $60 billion, Morningstar said.

The credit rating agency predicts the hurricane’s “destructive path will likely stretch far beyond the Florida coastline…and will also affect other major urban areas, including Orlando.”

“The damage caused by recent storms, including Hurricane Helene, will compound the losses in regions still battling with recovery efforts,” it added.

Almost one week prior, Hurricane Helene battered parts of the Southeast, including Florida. Total insured wind and flood losses are predicted to be between $10.5 billion and $17.5 billion, according to Corelogic’s most recent report. Earlier estimates had placed the cost of insured damages between $3 billion and $5 billion.