Rising rates dim refinance activity for conventional loans

Rising mortgage rates last week kept consumers on the sidelines. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported both purchase and refinance applications receding last week, continuing a slide after an end-of-summer surge. The MBA’s Market Composite Index of mortgage activity fell 5.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending Oct. 4, compared to the seven days prior.

The effective contract interest rate for all loan types tracked by the MBA rose on a weekly basis, led by the 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumping to 6.36% from 6.14%. The highest mortgage rates since August are the results of stronger economic data, including a September jobs report that came in above expectations. 

“Conventional loan refinances, which tend to have larger balances than government loans and hence are more responsive for a given change in mortgage rates, fell to a greater extent over the week,” said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, in a press release. 

Among all loan types, conventional loan refi applications fell the most week-over-week, down 14%. The MBA’s overall Refinance Index fell 9% during the same period, but remains 159% above where it was the same time a year ago. That assessment aligns directionally with a recent Optimal Blue report showing rate-and-term refi locks up 600% annually in September. 

The Purchase Index was flat, down 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the week ending Sept. 27. The unadjusted Purchase index inched up 0.1% weekly, and sits 8% higher than it was the previous seven days. 

Fratantoni in a statement suggested numerous factors beyond mortgage rates influenced purchase activity. Rising homeowners insurance and property taxes have been particularly painful for consumers. The average loan size was a record $413,100 a few weeks ago, according to the MBA; it was $402,900 in the most recent seven-day period the group tracked.

The average 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage crossed the 6% threshold last week, rising 19 basis points to 6.06%. The 15-year FRM saw the largest increase, climbing 20 bps to 5.71%. 

Rates for jumbo loans and Federal Housing Administration mortgages meanwhile also rose by double-digit bps, to 6.64% and 6.22%, respectively.